Analysis-Traders bet ECB will be first big central bank to cut rates

 (Reuters) – Financial markets are ramping up expectations for interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank, betting it will be the first major central bank to ease policy to buffer a euro zone economy facing recession in contrast to a robust United States.

Last week money market traders anticipated that the ECB, U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) would all start easing monetary policy in the second half of 2024 as inflation eases and recent interest rate hikes slow economic growth.

Yet that changed after data on Tuesday showed euro zone inflation dropped more than expected to its lowest in over two years in October, while the economy shrank during the third quarter, raising the risk of a year-end recession.

With investors confident that big central banks are likely done raising rates, focus has switched to when rate cuts will start.

Traders now price in over an 80% chance of a 25 basis-points (bps) ECB cut by April, which had been fully priced for July last week.

https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/analysis-traders-bet-ecb-will-be-first-big-central-bank-to-cut-rates/

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